Forget iPhone 6 and the Fundamentals: Apple is a Top Technical Trade

Please view our YouTube video about Apple's technical trading performance during September.

Apple has received a lot of press - good and bad - this month. Its launch of iPhone 6 was met with great fanfare but that dissipated as reports surfaced that the devices were bending too much and operating systems updates were rife with problems. Market chatter that Brussels may fine Apple over EU taxation issues surfaced over the past few days but Apple has shaken off these fundamentals for the most part.

In the Daily chart below, we have added arrows to show how often Apple's Daily Highs and Lows have coincided with key retracement levels related to the September intramonth range.

In the Weekly chart below,we see how the Weekly low earlier in September was right at a key retracement level, and we see how subsequent Highs and Lows have been near key retracement areas.

In this Monthly chart below, we see how our previous extension retracement level of 104.29 (from the April 2013 - January 2014 range) was a very reliable upside target in September.

Given its impact on pop culture and technology, Apple will continue to receive a disproportionate amount of attention to its fundamentals, though it is clear that this company has been a great technical trade.

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Traders Hit Stops and Drive GBP/CHF to New 3-Year High

Please view our YouTube video to see the appreciation of GBP/CHF to 3-year highs after stops were hit.

GBP/CHF is a cross rate worth watching given the importance of both London and Switzerland as banking and financial centres, a reality that results in significant liquidity on this cross.

Today's trading activity was very technical as traders lifted the cross from the 1.5436 level, representing the 23.6% retracement of the range from last week's High of 1.5507 through the current intraweek low of 1.5414.

The 76.4% retracement of this range is 1.5485 and traders reached stops above this area today, eventually pushing the cross to its Highest level since 2011 as we can see on this Daily chart below.

In this Weekly chart below, we see that GBP/CHF tested 1.5477 last week and this week, representing an important retracement extension level.

A bullish upside target is 1.6423.

This cross rate has been one of the British pound's (GBP's) most technical crosses over the past several weeks.

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FOREX Trade of the Day: Buy GBP/USD

Our YouTube video illustrates today's FOREX Trade of the Day and identifies further upside targets.

Today's FOREX Trade of the Day was a long GBP/USD position.

Buy: 1.6231
Sell: 1.6287

Notional Intraday Profit: +56 pips

Today's intraday Low of 1.6223 was below the 61.8% retracement of the 10 September Low of 1.6051 and the 19 September High of 1.6523, rendering the retracement level a profitable Entry Buy level.

Today's intraday High of 1.6287 was right at the 50% retracement level of this range, rendering the retracement level a profitable Exit Sell level.

Further upside targets include 1.6343, 1.6426, and 1.6481.

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Brent Crude and WTI Oil Markets Find Technical Bids

Please view our YouTube video about today's technical trading activity in Brent Crude and WTI Oil markets.

In Brent Crude, last week's pullback to the US$ 95.89 level followed by the subsequent move higher to the 97.81 level provided a perfect entry level today at the 61.8% retracement of that range.  The chart below illustrates this and we can clearly see that 96.62 was just above the Daily Low.

In WTI, the intramonth low of US$ 89.68 followed by the subsequent move higher to the 94.10 level provided a perfect entry level today at the 38.2% retracement of that range.  The chart below illustrates this and we can clearly see that 92.41 was just above the Daily Low.

Even when the markets appear to be boring, there's technical money to be made.

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Chinese Yuan Depreciates Significantly on Hong Kong Demonstrations

Please view our YouTube video about the impact of the ongoing Hong Kong democracy demonstrations against the Chinese yuan (CNY).

The Chinese yuan (CNY) depreciated today against the US dollar (USD) today as traders continued to sell the local currency on account of massive pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong. Through early North American trading, the pair reached an intraday high of CNY 6.1772, its highest level since 16 September.

The Chinese yuan's value is closely monitored by People's Bank of China on account of China's position as a major exporter.

As we can see in this Daily chart below, USD/CNY took out the 6.1633 level along with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

In this Weekly chart below, we can see USD/CNY took out some key levels today including 6.1734.

In this Monthly chart below, we can see there is quite a lot of upside including 6.1841, 6.2007, and 6.2102.

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FOREX: Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) Sharply Lower on HK Democracy Demonstrations

Please view our YouTube video about the impact of the ongoing Hong Kong democracy demonstrations against the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD).

The Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) depreciated for an eighth consecutive day against the US dollar (USD) today as traders continued to sell the local currency on account of massive pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong. Through early North American trading, the pair reached an intraday high of HK$ 7.7662, its highest level since 18 March 2014.

The Hong Kong Dollar is pegged to the US dollar at a peg between 7.75 - 7.85.

As we can see in this Daily chart below, USD/HKD has traded around the 7.75 handle for most of the past couple months, meaning the pair has much more official room to move higher.

In this Weekly chart below, we can see USD/HKD took out some key levels today including 7.7600, 7.7631, and some major trendlines.

In this Monthly chart below, we can see there is quite a lot of open upside higher to the 7.85 top level of the peg if headline risk continues.

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Major FOREX Intervention in New Zealand Dollar (NZD)

Please also watch our YouTube video about New Zealand dollar (NZD) intervention.

The New Zealand Dollar extended its recent sharp depreciation across the board today after it was revealed Reserve Bank of New Zealand sold a net NZ$ 521 million in August, the greatest amount since July 2007.  Traders interpreted these data as a clear sign RBNZ has been conducting significant NZ$-weakening intervention for several weeks and this precipitated major sales of kiwi today.

New Zealand Prime Minister Key is reported to have said the ideal level for the New Zealand dollar is around US$ 0.65, apparently signifying the government's desire that the local currency come off more than another ten (10) big figures.

The chart below is our proprietary NZD Activity Index on a Weekly basis. We can see recent NZ$ selling pressure has been at its weakest level in about a year on Weekly charts.

This is a Daily chart of NZD/USD from August and September where we can see the rate moving from US$ 0.88 to below $0.78. RBNZ's NZ$ 521 million in sales helped that move lower. Ten (10) big figures in two months is a monster move.

Some FX traders may not pay attention to NZD/USD, but it has proven one of the best majors to trade. Even fewer FOREX traders are watching the kiwi cross rates. Take a look at this Weekly chart of NZD/CHF below.  We can see this cross perfectly tested a major support retracement line around the CHF 0.7336 level. That is positive proof that there is major money being made on these kiwi cross rates.

It is as plain as day and evident on this NZD/CHF Monthly chart as well.

In a major currency pair - and its cross rates - that has limited liquidity to start with, it is clear the official competitive currency devaluation trade is becoming crowded.

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FOREX Trade of the Day: Buy AUD/NZD

Today's FOREX Trade of the Day was a long AUD/NZD position.

Buy: 1.1106
Sell: 1.1206

Today's intraday Low of 1.1100 was below the 50.0% retracement of the intramonth range, rendering the retracement level a profitable Entry Buy level.

Today's intraday High of 1.1280 was above the 76.4% retracement of the intramonth range, rendering the retracement level a profitable Exit Sell level.

Notional Intraday Profit: +100 pips

Further upside targets include 1.1482 and 1.1552.

Our YouTube video illustrates today's FOREX Trade of the Day and identifies further upside targets.

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http://goo.gl/i3hZaN

FOREX Technicals Mania! British Pound Trades to Technical Perfection for 5 Consecutive Days

Seldom will chartists see a Daily trading chart that validates technical analysis as much as this British pound chart against the US dollar (GBP/USD) over the past 5 trading days.

On the chart below, we look at the key technical levels between the Low of 1.6051 on 10 September and the High of 1.6523 on 19 September.

We can see that the High and/ or the Low of each trading day was right around a key technical level. It is rare that we see trading activity that is so explicitly technical as this, especially on a Daily chart.

Will technical trading in cable continue through the end of the month?

Please view our YouTube video to see how technically the British pound actually traded.

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5 Things Traders are Watching Next Week, or "The ECB Throws the Kitchen Sink"

5 Things That Matter Most to Traders Next Week

The Euro extended losses first seen in May back when the common currency traded with a US$ 1.39 handle, ceding a couple more big figures this week. The British pound returned to some sense of normalcy this week after moving past Scotland’s independence vote last week and was a beautiful technical trade.  The energy complex was mixed with WTI outperforming Brent crude as oil markets grapple with Middle Eastern headline risk.  Gold and Silver both encountered challenges at technical resistance as the metals complex continues to deteriorate. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below the psychologically-important 17,000 level area on Thursday as Apple was temporarily pressured back below the 100.00 figure.

Here is what traders are watching next week:

1.            Germany grabbed some attention this week as the eurozone’s largest economic growth engine showed additional signs of weakness as provisional September manufacturing PMI failed to meet forecasts and edged closer to contraction while provisional services data outperformed expectations. The real scare occurred when the headline September Ifo business climate index paraded south and the expectations index printed at a dismal 99.3. These data were compounded by a weaker-than-expected October consumer confidence number of 8.3, down from 8.6 in September.  Next week’s tape includes German August retail sales and provisional September German CPI with the possibility of a month-over-month contraction in inflation.  September employment numbers are also due Tuesday followed by manufacturing PMI numbers on Wednesday. Any big misses on the data front could pressure the Euro lower.

2.            The European Central Bank is going to grab a lot of press on Thursday when the Governing Council announces its latest monetary policy decision. With a deposit facility that now stands at -0.20% - rendering it costly for banks to keep inactive reserves with the central bank instead of lending them – the ECB will garner attention as it is widely expected to announce details of its asset-purchase regime. European style quantitative easing is expected to eventually total some €700 billion or so and guidance from Draghi after the policy decision will be heavily scrutinized. Any indication that the QE package may be larger or longer than expected may have profound implications for the Euro which was trading below $1.27 during late North American trading on Friday, its worst level since September 2012.

3.            US economic data will be parsed next week after Federal Reserve policymakers took to the airwaves en masse this week, sharing their latest views on monetary policy as markets continue to price in a likely bump up in rates in 2015. Former Fed chief Bernanke is unlikely to say anything to rock Yellen’s boat in remarks expected on Sunday but his post-Fed economic assessments are worth a peek. Chicago Fed’s Evans is due to speak next week amidst a relative dearth of commentary from Fed officials. Among the biggies are August pending home sales, September consumer confidence, September ISM manufacturing, and August factory orders. Of course, September non-farm payrolls round out the week on Friday with some economists expecting about a +200,000 headline gain in jobs.

4.            There’s a relatively quiet battle being waged at People’s Bank of China and Governor Zhou may become a casualty. Traders were encouraged by this week’s relatively healthy 50.5 HSBC manufacturing PMI print and some ancillary numbers. The August leading index is expected over the weekend following by some PMI data on Tuesday and Wednesday and services PMI on Thursday. Zhou is said to be feeling pressure with chatter increasing that China may fail to officially meet economic growth of 7.5% this year for the first time since 1998. He is said to be hesitant to expand monetary policy much further, instead favouring economic reform and rate liberalisations. 

5.            Gold and Silver remain casualties of the US dollar’s extended resurgence. The full extent of monetary policy divergence between the US and Eurozone will become further evident on Thursday. If the markets learn the ECB’s bid is bigger and/ or longer than anticipated, look for the divergence trade to become crowded and Gold and Silver could come off further as a consequence.  Gold remained a solid bearish technical trade with trouble around the US$ 1231.92 area and notwithstanding a brief pop above US$ 18.00, Silver remained near a multi-year low.

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Watch GOLD Gobble Up $7 in Stops in 1 Hour!

Please watch our latest Gold video to see Gold Gobble up $7 in Stops in 1 Hour.

Gold continued its spiral lower to multi-month lows today, reaching its lowest level since the first week of January and opening up a real threat to the psychologically-important 1200 figure. Commodities prices continue to depreciate as global demand ebbs and deflation takes root in several major industrialised countries.

Gold gobbled up $7 in stops in about 1 hour earlier today. In the Daily chart below, we can see the intraweek high of US$ 1233.80 and when we use that level as a High point and extend retracement levels downward so that they coincide with yesterday's high of 1226.00, we note that 1213.62 and 1208.82 levels are key downside targets.

In the 5-minute chart below, we can see that Gold held right above the 1213.62 level for hours and eventually triggered stops below the area, pushing Gold lower to the 1208.82 level where it bounced higher for 25 minutes. When stops were finally reached below the 1208.82 level, Gold was pushed as low as 1206.80.

Gold took out about $7 in stops in about 1 hour in a very technical move.

Further downside targets include 1201.07, 1200.39, and 1182.45.

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FOREX Trade of the Day: Buy AUD/NZD

Today's FOREX Trade of the Day was a long AUD/NZD position.

Buy: 1.0987
Sell: 1.1061

Today's intraday Low of 1.0987 was below the 23.6% retracement of the intraweek range, rendering the retracement level a profitable Entry Buy level.

Today's intraday High of 1.1078 was above the 38.2% retracement of the intramonth range, rendering the retracement level a profitable Exit Sell level.

Notional Intraday Profit: +74 pips

Further upside targets include 1.1106, 1.1151, and 1.1206.

Our YouTube video illustrates today's FOREX Trade of the Day and identifies further downside targets.

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http://goo.gl/tVVKqd

SILVER and GOLD Retrace Higher to Test Key Short-Term Resistance

Much in the same way the Oil complex found a bid today, the Metals complex moved higher to test some key short-term retracement levels. The southbound moves in Silver and Gold may be overdone and today's activity may simply represent some stale shorts being covered.

On the other hand, the US did lead a multi-national strike on ISIL fighters and their oil installations inside Syria overnight - headline risk that most metals punters would find it difficult to ignore.

Silver traded just above the US$ 17.95 level, representing the 23.6% retracement of the late August's High through yesterday's Low. Here is our Daily chart:

Similarly, Gold traded just above the US$ 1,231.92 level, representing the 76.4% retracement of basically the 2014 range. Here is our Weekly chart:

On the Silver upside, we are keeping our eyes on 18.32, 18.62, 18.91, and 19.18.

On the Gold upside, we are watching 1248.03, 1256.04, and 1262.28.

Today's Silver and Gold video details today's trading action.

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First OIL Trades of World War 3?

Oil markets found a bid overnight as traders reacted to news the US military led a coalition of Arab governments in attacking ISIL positions and oil installations in Syria. The Obama administration had famously resisted an official military incursion into Syria for several months, a policy that included backtracking on the President's infamous "cross a red line" statement.

While it is too early to determine if this will lead to a sustained or renewed military campaign in the region - and this blog is certainly not one to warmonger - a protracted military intervention may eventually result in today's campaign being an opening salvo to a possible World War III scenario. Not exactly assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand or bombing of Pearl Harbor-type stuff, but historians with the benefit of hindsight will invariably seek to frame any future war in the context of a singular event. US military action in Syria may eventually fit that bill.

Brent crude oil was pushed higher during the Asian session, eventually trading at an intraday high around US$ 97.82 during the North American session before moving lower on the day. Brent's Daily chart isn't anything exciting, but take a peek at its Weekly chart to see how the Weekly High coincides perfectly with a retracement extension level.

Moving westward across the oil complex, we note that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has outperformed Brent today. The market found support around the US$ 90.51 area and pushed the pair higher to test  resistance around the 91.72 area, representing a short-term 50% retracement level.

The futures traders who first pushed oil futures above the psychologically-important US$ 100.00 figure around the time of the Bush-led war in Iraq reportedly did so at a loss, just to say he was the first one across the tape in the name of infamy.  We're currently below that level, but history may repeat itself on the charts sooner rather than later if the markets perceive this to be the beginning of another World War.

Please view today's video about trading action in Brent crude and WTI.

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FOREX Trade of the Day: Sell GBP/JPY

Today's FOREX Trade of the Day is a short GBP/JPY position.

Sell: 178.21
Buy: 176.83

Today's intraday High of 178.31 was just above the 23.6% retracement of the 19 September High through the 20 September Low, rendering the retracement level a profitable Entry Sell level.

Today's intraday Low of 176.72 was below the 50.0% retracement of the 16 September Low through the 19 September High, rendering the retracement level a profitable Exit Buy level.

Intraday Profit: +138 pips

Further downside targets include 175.92 and 174.79.

Our YouTube video illustrates today's FOREX Trade of the Day and identifies further downside targets.

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SILVER Depreciates Sharply Past Our Price Objective of US$ 17.46

Silver came off sharply against the US dollar today, pushing the pair to a new multi-year low. Australian and Asian names were seen hitting bids overnight and Silver tumbled more than 40 cents in less than one hour.

In a recent video, we identified a key downside limit level for Silver and it was elected today when $17.46 was given.

In our chart below, we can see the $17.46 level was absorbed en route to an intraday low of $17.35. 

Another downside target remains $15.66.

Today's Silver video details today's price activity on Daily, Weekly, and Monthly charts.

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FOREX: Will EUR/USD Head Lower to Test Key 1.2625 Level?

EUR/USD has mostly been a one-way trade since early July, moving from a US$ 1.36 handle lower to a 1.28 handle. The pair took out some key technical levels along the way including 1.3490, 1.3148, and 1.3017. Currently, the pair is orbiting the 1.2858 area, representing the 23.6% retracement of the 2008 High through the 2010 Low.

In this Daily chart below, we identify the 1.2625 level as a key downside price objective for EUR/USD. This levels represents a retracement extension level.

In this Weekly chart below, we identify 1.2502 as another key downside target for EUR/USD.  This level relates to the 2012 Low through the 2014 High.

Our YouTube video examines recent EUR/USD trading activity and projects downside targets.

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FOREX: EUR/USD Fundamentals Should keep Bears Content

EUR/USD has mostly been a one-way trade on Weekly charts since early July. The euro remains a great fundamental and technical trade against the US dollar and this is important for traders because EUR/USD is the most liquid spot currency pair.

Fundamentally, the European Central Bank (ECB) offered in June to provide banks with €400 billion in four-year loans to stimulate economic growth in the eurozone, a process that would involve a dramatic expansion of the ECB's balance sheet. Last week, the ECB launched its first offering of "targeted long-term refinancing operations" (TLTRO) and the markets expected upwards of €150 billion to be subscribed to. Banks borrowed far below that level, only requesting €82.6 billion and deciding to repay €19.8 billion from the ECB's LTRO in 2011-2012. Net liquidity totaled €62.8 billion, way below expectations and likely a disappointment to the ECB itself.

One cannot necessarily fault the ECB, however, as there is a now a negative deposit rate in the eurozone. If banks were to take the liquidity and merely park it as reserves as the ECB, they would essentially be losing money and paying a tax. It is estimated that Italy borrowed approximately €37 billion last week and that Spain's five largest banks borrowed approximately €15 billion. The next TLTRO is scheduled for December, a couple of months after the ECB publishes its asset quality review of eurozone banks' balance sheets - a report that could publicly shame some banks into absorbing more liquidity from the ECB if their assets are deemed worrisome, troublesome, or even toxic.

The likely outcome of last week's poor TLTRO is that the ECB may be forced into widespread quantitative easing (QE). ECB President Draghi in August noted that he expects the ECB's balance sheet will approach 2012 levels, suggesting it could expand about €1 trillion further. At next month's Governing Council meeting, ECB policymakers are expected to unveil details about its asset-backed securities (ABS) purchase plans, a move that could also see it purchase covered bonds.

One possible limitation and risk regarding the ECB's plans relates to the actual size of the ABS market. As of the end of 2013, it is estimated that outstanding ABS totaled about €1 trillion but new volumes in 2013 were only around €76.4 billion, the lowest level since 2009.  Similarly, new covered bond issuance for 2014 is only around €119 billion, the lowest volume since at least 2001.  We can reliably blame the financial crisis and its ongoing aftermath for the relative dearth in new issuance.

Another potential complicating issue involves which eurozone members' bonds and assets the ECB would actually purchase. Would the ECB stick to countries that need the most financial assistance, or would it attempt to take a uniform approach when leaving bids in the market? Absent a single unique yield curve for the eurozone itself, this is a very contentious issue that has plagued policymakers since well before the ECB's creation.

Between next month's ABS purchase details and December's TLTRO window, Draghi may soon find that he is running out of convention - and unconventional - easing options.

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Alibaba (BABA) IPO and First Day's Trading Activity

Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba (BABA) went public on Friday on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at a price of US$ 68.00, valuing the company at nearly US$ 230 billion and rendering it the 18-largest publicly-traded company in the world.

The opening price was $92.70 and the share price rocketed to $99.70 before traders booked more profits. At current prices, Alibaba has a larger market capitalisation than Facebook (FB) and Amazon (AMZN) but less than Google (GOOG).  Currently the world's largest e-commerce company, Alibaba reportedly saw more than US$ 300 billion of goods sold on its marketplaces in 2013.

The blue horizontal line in the chart below is the IPO price of $68.00. We can see the first tick of $92.70 followed by an intraday High of $99.70.

In this chart below, we can see technical analysis is already hard-at-work on Alibaba. Traders bought the stock just above the $90.66 level, representing a 76.4% retracement of a second wave of intraday profit-taking.

The share price closed on Friday at $93.38.

Please view our YouTube video to see IPO and the first day's trading activity.

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FOREX: British pound (GBP) Gaps Higher After Traders Take Profits on Scotland Vote

The British pound (GBP) gapped higher this week after traders booked major profits during Friday's North American session following Thursday's vote regarding Scottish independence. Voters rejected the bid for independence from the UK by a vote of 55%-to-45%, meaning Scotland's 307-year union with the United Kingdom is likely to remain intact for quite some time.

In this 5-minute GBP/USD chart, we can see heavy selling pressure on Friday during the European and North American sessions as traders booked profits one day after the vote. We can also see a gap Higher today as traders continued to evaluate headline risk from the vote.

We can also see heavy selling pressure on Friday in the EUR/GBP chart below, with this cross rate nearly closing Higher on the day on Friday.  Note the gap lower between Friday's Close and today's Open.

In our YouTube video, we look at Friday's sharp GBP selling pressure and we identify key upside targets in GBP/USD and key downside targets in EUR/GBP.

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http://goo.gl/KH2NsY

FOREX Trade of the Day: Long GBP/AUD (22 September 2014)

Today's FOREX Trade of the Day is a long GBP/AUD position.

Today's intraday Low of 1.8232 was just below the 38.2% retracement of the 16 September Low through the 19 September High, rendering the retracement level a profitable Entry point.

Today's intraday High of 1.8359 was just above the 50.0% retracement of the 19 September High through the 19 September Close, rendering the retracement level a profitable Exit point.

Intraday Profit: +116 pips

Further upside targets include 1.8384, 1.8419, and 1.8719.

Our YouTube video illustrates today's FOREX Trade of the Day and identifies further upside targets.

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http://goo.gl/RjilNy

5 Things That Matter Most to Traders Next Week

Global equity markets continued their lovefest with the liquidity lagniappe from central bank policymakers this week with several headline indices reaching historic or multi-month highs. China’s Alibaba went public on the New York Stock Exchange with a US$ 68.00 price and a $92.70 opening tick, elevating Jack Ma and his cronies into rarefied air. Alex Salmond and fellow Scottish Nationalists took their “Yes” campaign down to the wire but the “No” campaign eked out a victory with Cameron, Darling, Brown, and even Her Majesty lending a helping hand. Gold and Silver established new 2014 lows, gobbling up stops along the way.

Here is what traders are watching next week:

1.            The British pound gave traders a major head-fake in early September when it traded as low as the US$ 1.6050 level, a short-lived reaction to a weekend poll number that proved to be a good entry point for traders looking to pick up some cable ahead of yesterday’s referendum. Smart technical money exited that trade around $1.6485 before it was confirmed the “No” contingent scored 55% at the ballot. Sterling also gained major ground against the euro, dragging the cross down to £0.7808, its lowest level since July 2012 – but not enough to test the key £0.7783 level. Post-referendum euphoria is subsiding, but some headline risk remains as London unveils sweeteners to appease the losing “Yes” crowd. With nothing too exciting on next week’s economic schedule for GBP, traders will want to see if sterling sheds the headline risk and returns to fundamentals like interest rate expectations and economic numbers. 

Our recent videos have highlighted this recent Scotland trade, a boon to technicians.

2.            Gold and Silver continued their bout with gravity with the former taking out big stops below US$ 1,232 and the latter testing US$ 18.285, just above the 2013 low. In the exchange-traded market, SLV is hovering around US$ 17.87, a key technical level where significant physical demand has been seen. GLD so far has resisted the temptation to test the US$ 113.62 level in 2014 where the physical crowd is expected to add to physical portfolio holdings. 

Our recent videos identify some key downside targets including 1200.39 and 17.468.

3.            China is slowing: that much is known. Last weekend’s economic data – if they are credible – saw August industrial production growth slow to +6.9% y/y from +9.0% y/y, taking the year-to-date tally down to +8.5% y/y. August retail sales moderated to +11.9% y/y and foreign direct investment was a big miss at -14% in August.  Traders mostly care about Tuesday’s headline HSBC September manufacturing number. August came in at 50.2 and a print below the boom-or-bust 50.0 level will throw the commodity export crowd into a tizzy. 

Our recent video highlights the Australian dollar’s tailspin after the weaker Chinese data.

4.            Global equity prices were bid higher after the Federal Open Market Committee retained policy language to lift liquidity-dependent share prices. The Fed’s latest projections imply a federal funds policy rate of 1.27% in December 2015. In contrast, however, the Fed funds futures contract for December 2015 imply a rate around 0.78%, about 50bps below Fed policymakers’ projections. Fed boss Yellen downplayed the gap between the market and the Fed. FOMC Kremlinologists are speculating that Yellen’s personal dot on the Fed’s “dot plot” is the fourth from the bottom, signifying that she with the greatest sway envisions rates around 0.875% at the end of 2015.  Traders will see if Alibaba can ignite some long-absent retail enthusiasm for U.S. shares with the headline DJIA currently at an all-time high of US$ 17,265.99.

Our recent video highlights recent S&P action.

5.            The trend is your friend, and global FX rates have been our best friend over the past couple of weeks. After a dearth of volatility for the better part of six months, currency rates are once again showing indications of life. The aforementioned sterling (GBP) trade is an example, and there is big money being made in the Japanese yen (JPY) and some of the euro (EUR) crosses as well.  A return to ¥110 in USD/JPY would be attention grabbing, but trendnicians care more about 110.20 and 111.63. Traders will see if these blossoming trends can continue next week. Crosses like EUR/CAD have been one-way trades with C$ 1.3856 a big downside level.

Our recent video highlights recent USD/JPY action and the EUR/CAD trade.

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